Think Big & Long

I'm sure everyone in the world think about savings and investments but there is always a tendency for the people to think about short term gains. I won't say it is bad if the gains we are making are really based on need. But with sound justifications & analysis, we sure can reap greater benefits if we are thinking about longer terms.

When we think about say Fixed Deposits in India, ICICI bank is giving as much as 10% ROI and that too for Senior Citizens for a period of 390 days. I wrote about NFO's in Mutual Funds. Is it the same scenario? After say an year of investment in a NFO for Rs. 10/- per unit, are you going to be satisfied with Rs. 12 per unit where you feel you have made 20% returns against a 10% return in Term deposits.

So, why not we start thinking big? How about a 1500% to 2000% returns after say a period of 10 years? Everyone knows that the markets are a bit risky, with a sound base risks will give good returns. Instead of just stopping at term deposits, a real-estate investment and that too on a loan for say 15 years, we should start allocating our funds for longer terms making sure that we can get greater benefits than a mere 15% or so.

I guess, we have lots of lessons to learn from all those investors who would have put their funds in say Infosys long long ago and have waited for such a long time to become crorepati's. Market is like a river - Just make sure you take water out of it when there is surplus.

Cars' Onstar

There was a day in US when I went for an auto show and I did get a chance to drive any car I like. There were so many options that I had to run for next choice because I had that only day to drive the best & the luxurious cars of today.

In that auto show, I had my first experience of OnStar technology in one of the GM cars. I was in the car which was central locked. On press of the OnStar button, a customer service rep started conversing. I asked about the location of the car and they could tell that. So, now I really wanna test them and so asked them to unlock the car & start the ignition. Voila! The next moment all doors showed unlock & the car started. How nice!

And now the technology has taken one more step further by controlling the speed of the vehicle. As of now, they have taken this to a level where a stolen car can be stopped (by not allowing fuel to flow to the engine) from remote location, ofcourse after getting confirmation from the car vehicle owner & the cops.

I think this technology should become more sophisticated where if the car exceeds the defined speed limit in the location by more than 5Miles/Hour, then warning should be shown to the driver and if the driver continues to do the mistake for more than a specified time, the car should automatically start slowing down and go to auto cruise at the defined speed limit. And we can take this a lot more further...

Center Storm

It looks like the storm is taking position and soon it may be rocking the whole of India. Wonder what? What else... Left & UPA are not able to come to a consensus on the 123 N-Deal. The only problem is, the meetings are not transparent. Atleast the public should know what is being discussed.

If Left has a valid point, can't the UPA refine some details in the agreement going back to US? If it is vice versa, then it is an issue. If these people are not able to resolve such internal conflicts smoothly, how far will they ever go in solving the Kashmir issue?

Anyways, we can see bright prospects for the elections on its way. Agree?

Sandal Forest

The heading is the translation of the Tamil word 'Sandhana kaadu'. That is the mega serial name which is going to be screened in Makkal TV from Oct 15th. And all it is going to talk about is the slain sandalwood smuggler Veerappan's life.

Just because he had the support of the villagers in & around his locality, that doesn't make him a big hero or a Robin Hood. Does it? In either case, he is still an anti-social element and I really don't feel we should make a big reel-story about him. Why is the TN Govt or the court allowing this?

Killer Buses

People dying in accidents in India is very common but why is that the accidents involving Blueline buses at Delhi is creating a big hype? The worst case is almost every 2 months we keep hearing about them.

After all these and after today's incident, the NewDelhi CM reacts saying people should cross roads after seeing left & right. Are we talking about one or two people here? In total there are 7 deaths and couple injured - What an irresponsible remark!!

I seriously wish the public transport vehicles in India are also responsible enough like the ones in US. They always be in the rightmost lanes in normal city roads, if needed take the car pool lanes in freeways, always maintain the speed limits, the drivers give all help to old & disabled, give importance to pedestrians and the way they stop for sure before rail crossings...

Saturday Games...

American College football fever is at its peak this year with many top ranked teams losing their first games of the season - Kentucky, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Georgia and the best one (or rather the worst) USC.

Who would have imagined Stanford will throw away the #2 ranked in the last minute and that too at their ground itself bringing an end to a 35 home game winning streak? Being a Buckeye, I'm glad that things are working in the right direction towards the championship game after defeating Purdue today.

And in F1 it is all coming to Brazil grid to define the champion - Hamilton, Alonso or Raikkonen. Well ofcourse I didn't expect Hamilton to just go away without finishing the Shanghai circuit, after taking pole.

TA...

In one of the recent issues of MoneyLife, there was an article on Technical Analysis (TA). There was a blunt & out right rejection of this technique in analyzing stock prices to forecast the future. If so many finance related professors from big MBA instituitions have done analysis using the same besides Fundamental Analysis & Random Walks then are their researches worthless? Is there no value for Resistance & Support terminologies?

I'm atleast an ardent believer of data and information. I'll probably end up doing data analysis on my own & see what can be proved.

Fund Manager...

If you are thinking about Mutual Funds investment, this is one of the important things to know - Fund manager. But are we really investing on the Fund Manager? To some extent YES.

• Fund Manager is like a CEO. In many cases, he makes the decision on where to invest and in which direction a particular fund should move on.
  
• Then there are all these analysts who work for the AMC & the Fund Manager, who keep guiding and advising on where to go. May be to some extent the board of directors...
• And then the AMC itself and their maturity in MF.
  

If a Fund Manager moves on or comes in, you better be aware of this and make some informed-sound decision about your investments.

The question to be asked is, what kind of permission does the AMC give to the fund manager? If the Fund Manager has all the say to make, then it is dangerous because when the Fund Manager leaves the whole direction for the Fund itself leaves. There is a very chance that the fund will fall from say 50% returns to 1% returns or so.

So, just don't go by highly attractive fund names but go with the AMC, their Fund policies, the fund's past performance and to some extent, Fund Manager. But remember - All these come to picture after you have defined your portfolio.

Sharing..

Think twice before you download songs from internet because this copyright & file sharing lawsuit has favored the recording industry. As can be seen, the fine amount is also not in pennies. But who is to blamed - Is it the uploader, the provider or the downloader?

And in India, it is not a long way to go when all these copyrights issues come to foreground and the first thing that will be looked on to is internet.

ULIPs

Are ULIPs just better than normal Life Insurance? I just took the details from LIC.

In first case, I took Jeevan Surabhi for 20 years with insurance for Rs 2 Lakhs. The website says that we got to pay like Rs 18000/- per year for next 15 years as premium and hence, at the end of 20 years we get Rs. 2 Lakhs plus whatever bonus is applicable say in total Rs. 4.5 Lakhs.

It seems, LIC all over the nation went crazy on March 31st with uncontrollable number of Money Plus account registrations. So, doing similar calculations with Money Plus -

• Rs. 18000 payment for 15 Years
• Complete term as 20 Years
• Returns coming at the range of 5% to 25% per year (randomly generated)

- we are essentially looking into returns of Rs. 18 Lakhs plus Rs. 1.8 Lakhs of insured sum. Quite possible and quite some good returns compared to just a Life Insurance. Agree?

Columbia Prez

Is the invitation by the President of University of Columbia or by the dean of International & Public Affairs school doesn't matter. What matters is, president of Iran has been invited and Ahmedinejad has also come in after accepting the invitation. Bollinger, President of the University should atleast have come into the picture when decision to invite was made.

Now after the Iran leader has walked in, why to make all those derogatory comments right on the introductory speech itself? Is that a way to prove to the whole world that Bollinger is not interested in having Iran President in his campus. Would he have made such comments against North Korea leader or China leader? I feel - A person on campus for a speech after invitation should be treated with dignity.

Quotes from Bollinger & Ahmedinejad...

Jodi #1...

I haven't been checking out this year's Jodi #1 program in Vijay TV - Well, I did somewhat last year when the season finals came by - as am no more interested. But when I saw yesterday's ad on the same about the upcoming events I felt I should just write about it or rather on the people who are involved.

Prithvi is someone who will fall on top of my list of hated actors. So, when I saw him dance which in fact had no dance movements I was sure the program is worthless.

Then comes Simbu who has in fact climbed on the ladder of acting & performances only because of his own efforts. As always, he talked a lot and was very straight forward in criticizing Prithvi. Well, it was good that both had some heated discussions.

But, ultimately both started crying, became emotional and Simbu calling himself to be eliminated. Ohh... What a sensational turn!!! For me, it was more like what a crap!!?? Somethings are unexplainable like I don't understand why would people watch two MEN cry for no reason... Two Thumbs DOWN from me!!!

The Markets...

At one end, there is way too much inflow of foreign funds into India and that is making the Sensex reach 1000's within matter of 3-4 days. With lingering around 18000 - that is like 3000 increase in 3 months - every small & retail investor should be very cautious to play as the Finance Minister has put forth. Just a quick look gives us the idea - The hype hasn't reduced for infrastructure & real estate. All Basic/Engg, Cement, Construction, Metals and ofcourse the Financial services are all the key players.

While at the other end, INR is knocking doors of Rs39/$, and it is seen to end at Rs.37.5/$. Many small Cos, BPOs, Exports & especially IT industries are already affected and it's gonna get worse. Likewise, the importers are becoming strong competitors 'coz of their reducing costs for the domestic manufacturers. And obviously, NRI don't want to sell their currencies in loss.

It's 2 different ends driving the Indian market today.

Politics - Never Trust

We all know Indian politicians are all opportunists. Likewise, they only use the things in their favor and after that, who cares.

As Yashwant Sinha rightly put, T20 form is much famous in Indian politics before the cricket version. The 20 months of sharing power between JD(s) & BJP in Karnataka. Well, the only thing that should be remembered is, this is not cricket but politics. Never trust.

At this point, it seems like Kumarasamy has taken advantage of BJP's trust for past 20 months and is not ready to pay back. Typical Indian politics...

Be Positive...

The latest Oct 11th edition of MoneyLife magazine has a page on 'Positive Thinking' (Author - Ms. Sheth). Nice 5 points which will sure add value to life.

• Be a hopeful person
• Drawing cheers from others
• Making others around you positive
• Staying confident during a crisis
• Letting optimism linger

All we need to do is put our thoughts together for being positive and that's gonna bring change.

Mahatma's day

I think this is just a flow of thoughts on India's improvements...

• Roads to every nook & corner of India
• Improve road conditions for daily work commutation - All those stagnant waters & pot holes
• Improve tourism
• Corruption & Bribery - What a shame...
• Basic level of education to every Indian kid & citizen
• Improve Health Care system - Reach needy, the emergency times when an ambulance doesn't reach you
• Child employment - Just remove it...
• Infrastructure - Not only in metros & cosmos. All those small cities, towns & villages
• Usage of public transport as much
• Obey traffic rules, regulations & safety
  
• Increase pride in our culture - Well, maintain them
• Cleanliness in every place
• Those posters on walls...Just stop them
  
• Small scale industries development
• Why every farmer is not seen as an Indian - All these fights of sharing river water & dam constructions - Better to connect Indian rivers
• Improving legal system
• Improving faith in Police system
• Media is more powerful than ever. Need to put them for better use
• Address security concerns in public places
• Bring out talents from individuals
• Recognize & increase sports participation in international level
• Increase R&D, bring out enterpreneurs
• PAN# usage like SSN - How about requirement of PAN for every transaction above Rs5000, for every savings account created... Probably use cell revolution to this advantage. Every cell holder needs a PAN... Every PAN number should file tax returns
• More & more computerization in man's daily needs, encourage electronic transactions
• Sales Tax/Value Added Tax - Bill for every shopping purchase
• Rain water usage & harvesting
• Improving drainage water system
• Eradicate prostitution
  
• Encourage people to invest
• Helping rural - Like the Aam Aadmi Bhima Yojna scheme getting introduced today
• Encouraging humanitarian charity based NPO
• Moving away from caste based reservations and towards reservations on financial basis

Looks like this is not gonna stop.
So, the responsibility falls on every common man to the whole government system.

Home Loan Cuts

Those are very positive signs coming up from the banks for the festive season. Well, after the Sub Prime crisis, it can be seen that Indian banks don't want to take chances and really want to put money in circulation.

Why not, because for last 4-5 years the number of housing loan requirements were huge and presently the number increase should have been cut by say one-fifth. After HDFC announcing 75 BPs, SBI has also hinted on the same. Going by the trend from BoB, Allahabad Bank & so on, can the existing customers be positive about reduction in their floating rates? Increments will happen for everyone simultaneously, but not the other way around.

A very good housing loan customer who keeps paying back on time, can never expect such a rate reduction to happen. Obviously, the customer should move out or atleast threaten to move out. Ain't not?

Global Funds

Well, ofcourse there is a surge in the number of Global funds in the Mutual Fund market in the recent months, but do we really need to invest in them? Before taking a step forward here are all the points to be considered.

1. All funds are new to the market & may be in a year they'll all change from Rs.10 to Rs12. If you are going to be satisfied with 20% returns then you have green. But if you are looking into long term, then let's wait till the funds perform for some time.
2. If you are thinking for diversification, then this is not the right choice because most of the funds are giving 65% equities from Indian market. The remaining are also from similar markets like Emerging, Chinese, South east asian countries. So, essentially we are not looking into diversification. But, we can probably consider Birla Sunlife Intl. Equity Fund Plan A.
3. In longer term , think about the currency value change and the risk we are taking because of the same. The profit may become a loss.
   
4. I did some more research on FoF terminology and realized that these funds deposit money in global mutual funds and they are not going to invest directly in foreign equities. It is only double fund management expense from the customer end which goes hidden in NAV.
5. Atlast, the AMCs are so immature in global funds.

So, my point - Sit back, relax, watch it out & then go for them.

Mushy Rules

After all the hype, Musharraf is still ruling Pakistan and he will hold his post of Military Chief when he is running for the post of President.

At one end, an election says that Pakistan is once again moving back to democracy but who has control over the military, not the President but the military chief. In either case, Musharraf will hold Presidency & select a military chief of his own choice or he'll retain the post of military chief, if he is defeated in election.

So, ultimately after a democratic election Musharraf will have good control of almost everything in Pakistan. Is it not?

Climate Look

You got any idea why Bush is backing climatic stuffs and want actions against Global warming suddenly after all these 6 years of in power? Well, obviously he & his government are under pressure for not taking any actions on that side.

For all these years he has been always behind the oil business and that in fact has increased the "emission" rate... Should be, agree? But what is to worry is, he hasn't made any proposals for immediate actions and stringent measures that can help. It is all voluntary & a call to nations to join voluntarily. But, glad that he has atleast touched this point at this point of time which has got some wide spread attention & will starting waking up things...